Silver Tiger Baccarat Strategy. Another tactic that some more advanced players use is the Silver Tiger Baccarat strategy and system. This approach is also developed by Ri Chang and this one is used to produce even more wins than seen when using the Golden Eagle Baccarat strategy or the basic strategy. This strategy is more aggressive and has a. As the above video shows, the 1324 baccarat strategy works as it is supposed to. However, we want to emphasize that it does not fundamentally change the mathematics of baccarat. Even with the 1324 system, the house always has an edge. If you bet on player, the house edge will be 1.24%, if you bet on banker, it’ll be 1.06%, but you’ll have. The various betting strategies range from the red phoenix betting strategy to the golden dragon baccarat strategy. These strategies are winning strategies and can be used for EZ baccarat and the mini version of the game. The mini-baccarat and EZ baccarat are similar games, with a few differences. The mini-game of EZ baccarat requires players to. Baccarat is known as the casino game with the lowest house edge, however, the Tie bet can definitely tarnish its reputation. The Banker is recommended for its low edge of 1.06%, the Player is also a good option with a house edge of 1.26% and then there’s the Tie bet – standing at the staggering 14.4% house edge, defying logic and critical thinking. It recently came to my attention that APs are engaged in using 'known-carding' against the Dragon 7 (Fortune 7) and Panda 8 baccarat side bets. That makes sense. That makes sense. After all, if an AP is going to go through all the trouble to track a single card through a shoe, he may as well get whatever additional value he can from that knowledge.

These tips are for baccarat players that are trying to use a strategy to increase their odds of winning, and they apply specifically to the game as played in an online casino, rather than the real life game. They apply in particular to gamblers using a strategy or system, more so than to general baccarat play. There are no tricks here that will give you an advantage; just good advice.

Check the odds.

It may seem obvious, but before playing in a new casino check that the odds on offer for all the baccarat bets are correct. The normal commission deduction on Banker bets is 5%, but I have seen some casinos charging 25% on this bet. Some places will offer less than 5% too, which is great, so watch out for those. The normal odds on the Player bet should be evens (1:1). That never varies. The Tie bet is almost always 8 to 1, which is of course terrible value and should be avoided.

Always Bet the Player

Most standard baccarat tips will tell you to bet the Banker bet, as it has slightly better odds than the player bet. For players following a strategy however this is bad advice. You should always bet the player bet when you are using a betting strategy. The slightly lower than evens payout (after commission) on banker bets will cause a problem in progressive systems.

As an example of this, lets look at a person using the Martingale system of doubling up after each loss until they hit a win. I am not suggesting that you play that system, by the way. This is just for demonstration purposes. This hypothethical player is betting $10 on the Banker and doubling the previous bet until they hit a win.

Lets say this player experiences 4 losses in a row, and wins on the fifth hand. That is not at all unlikely. The first four losing bets are for $10, then $20, then $40 and then $80, totalling $150 staked and lost. The next bet on the banker hand is for $160 and thankfully it wins. The total payout – $160 stake plus $160 win – is $320, less 5% commission, which means the player gets back $304. The total stakes were $10 + $20 + $40 + $80 + $160 which comes to $310. So even though the player finally won his bet, it resulted in a net loss on that sequence of $6.

A similiar run of losses while betting the player hand would have given the expected 1 unit of profit, that is $10.

Quit when you are ahead

This goes against the “Stick to the Rules” tip listed below but it is good advice nonetheless. Before starting your session work out what you can reasonably expect to win with your strategy. If your starting bankroll is, for example, $500, then you should figure out what amount of profit you would be happy to walk away from the table with. Whatever that number is – $100, $250, $500 or even unrealistically $1000 – if you should reach that amount in profit early in the session you should quit then. You can always come back another day.

Play short sessions

The house edge will get you in the long run. No system or strategy has ever been found that will overcome the built-in house advantage.

If you decide beforehand how many games you are going to play, say 100 or 200, and count them as you play (you will record the results of each hand anyway if you are system betting) then you will be more prepared to accept a loss on your session and walk away, instead of playing on to try to recover your money.

When you are winning, too, shorter sessions work in your favor. After you reach the number of hands you decided to play, you will be more likely to accept whatever profit you have, even if it’s an odd number like $67. If you are playing without any set limit you may see that you are up $67 and decide to play it up to a nice even $100. That’s a sure fire way to lose it all back.

Stick to the rules of the strategy

When you have decided on your system and started playing, no matter what kind of run you experience it is best to stick with the rules of the method that you are playing. Unless you hit a fantastically good run early on and decide to take your money and run (See “Quit when you’re ahead, above) you should ride out the cards in order to be true to the betting strategy you are using. Many players will get frustrated when bet after bet loses, and after five or six losses in a row they might be tempted to increase their bet massively in order to recoup their losses in one hand.

It is better to stick with your plan and try to be more philosophical about any losses. You’re playing a system, you know there will be losing sessions. Accept it, and follow the rules of your strategy. If it’s a system worth playing, it’s worth following it properly.

Manage your money

This tip does not only apply to baccarat; it is good advice for all gamblers and all system bettors. You will have losing sessions, just like you will have winning sessions. Your number one priority is to ensure that you have enough money in your bankroll to get you through the losing ones. As a guideline, take the total amount of funds and divide it by ten. That amount is what you can play in any one session. If after five sessions you have not had one winning one, it is probably time to try something else. And you will still have funds to do just that.

Read the small print

Before depositing you should check the terms of any casino bonus you may be playing for. Many sites do not allow baccarat in the wagering requirements for releasing the bonus money. If they do allow it, they may require you to gamble more than you would be required to gamble at other games. It is better to know in advance so alwyas check the small print.

Some players are still a bit wary of playing in an online casino. If you want to be certain that the cards are random you can play in a live online casino with real dealers, and watch the cards being dealt.

Bonus Tip – Don’t buy systems.

One final piece of advice I would like to give, though it’s not really a tip, is that you should never buy a system or strategy for winning at Baccarat. If you have already bought some, don’t buy any more. They are a complete waste of your money. If you are tempted to buy one, check for reviews online. You won’t see many players claiming that they made money from any of them.

Appendices
Baccarat Analysis
Miscellaneous

Introduction

Card Counting the Dragon Side Bet in EZ Baccarat

The Dragon Side Bet for EZ Baccarat is simple to describe. This side bet pays 40-to-1 if the dealer’s three-card total of 7 beats the player, otherwise the bet loses. Analysis of the wager consists of a straight forward cycle through all possible hands. Table 1 gives the analysis for eight decks, with the house edge of 7.611% appearing in the lower right cell.

Table 1

EZ Baccarat Dragon Side Bet

Event	Pays	Combinations	Probability	Return
Winning Dragon	40	112,633,011,329,024	0.022530	0.901350
Losing Dragon	-1	4,885,765,264,174,330	0.977470	-0.977470
Total	4,998,398,275,503,360	1.000000	-0.076110

I first considered if the Dragon Side Bet was susceptible to a card counting methodology several months back. Intuitively, it seemed as though the wager was more probable to hit if there was an excess of 7 and 10 valued cards in the deck. In this case, the dealer would be more likely to draw 10-10 and hit to a 10-10-7 = 7. Later, as I read several Internet discussion boards, it became clear that others thought as I did. The conclusions were that if there was any vulnerability at all, it would come when 7’s and 10’s were in excess in the remainder of the shoe. It turns out this is not the case. The Dragon Side Bet is vulnerable to a card counting methodology, but the answer is surprising.

The key is that in order for the player to win the Dragon bet, the dealer has to draw a third card. This requirement trumps everything else. The cards that keep the dealer from drawing that third card most often are the 8 and the 9. As these cards are removed from the shoe, the edge moves quickly towards the counter’s favor. An excess of smaller cards is also helpful. The cards 1-7 are each cards that can move the dealer’s final total to 7 if he draws. Determining which of these low cards result in a final total of 7 most often is the key.

The methodology used in this study is familiar. The overall house edge for the game dealt from eight decks is 7.611%. By removing each card in turn from an eight-deck shoe, its effect on the house edge can be determined. This allows card counting systems to be developed. After arriving at candidate systems, computer simulations are run to see if these systems can generate an edge in practice. If there is an edge, the question then becomes if this is significant enough to become an opportunity for the advantage player.

Table 2 shows the number of winning and losing hands that result from removing one card from an eight-deck shoe, along with the house edge after removing that card.

Table 2

House Edge by Card Removed

Card Removed	Winning Dragon	Losing Dragon	Total	House Adv.
1	111,068,343,867,648	4,815,237,648,815,950	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.075620
2	110,900,807,733,248	4,815,405,184,950,350	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.077010
3	110,879,201,710,336	4,815,426,790,973,260	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.077190
4	110,686,449,371,648	4,815,619,543,311,950	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.078790
5	110,691,915,602,560	4,815,614,077,081,040	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.078750
6	110,618,934,007,296	4,815,687,058,676,300	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.079360
7	110,577,900,912,896	4,815,728,091,770,700	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.079700
8	111,654,703,169,536	4,814,651,289,514,060	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.070740
9	111,583,436,417,536	4,814,722,556,266,060	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.071330
10	111,112,191,215,104	4,815,193,801,468,490	4,926,305,992,683,600	-0.075250

Table 2 allows us to compute the effect on the house edge for the Dragon bet by removing each card. Table 3 gives these results. The middle column (EOR) shows the change in house edge when the indicated card is removed. The final column (EOR x 1000) indicates potential card-counting tags to use in an optimal system.

Table 3

Effect of Removal

Card Removed	EOR	EOR x 1000
1	0.000500	0.5
2	-0.000900	-0.9
3	-0.001080	-1.1
4	-0.002680	-2.7
5	-0.002630	-2.6
6	-0.003240	-3.2
7	-0.003580	-3.6
8	0.005380	5.4
9	0.004790	4.8
10	0.000860	0.9

Table 3 indicates the extreme importance of ridding the shoe of 8’s and 9’s. Also, the 7 is the most important card, as expected, to remain in the shoe. The other cards diminish in value as their pips go down, presumably because they are used in fewer and fewer situations to draw to a dealer total of 7. Working against intuition, the counter’s situation improves as zero-valued cards are removed from the deck.

Ez Baccarat Dragon 7

Looking at the values in the last column of Table 3, and adjusting slightly to make it balanced, we get card counting “system 1” with tags (0.5, -0.9, -1.1, -2.7, -2.7, -3.3, -3.6, 5.4, 4.8, 0.9). The reader will most likely consider it daunting to use system 1 in practice. However, as a baseline counting system, it is worthwhile to see how it performs. In an effort to simplify this unwieldy system as much as possible, I also considered the card counting system with tags (0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0). I’ll refer to this as “system 2.” This latter system is easily implemented by a counter of average skill level.

To gauge the effectiveness of each, I wrote a computer program to simulate using these two systems in live play. The game I simulated has the following shuffling and cut card rules:

The game is dealt from a shoe with 8 decks.
At the start of each shoe, a card is burned. Based on the value of the burn card, an additional number of cards are burned, equal to the value of the card.
The cut card is placed 14 cards from the end of the shoe.
After the cut card is dealt, one more round is dealt before shuffling.

Table 4 gives the results of a simulation of two hundred million (200,000,000) shoes.

Table 4

Simulation Results: 200M Shoes

Dragon Baccarat Facebook

Item	System 1	System 2
Target Count	10	4
Expected Value	7.315%	8.032%
Standard Deviation	6.456	6.567
Frequency of Bet	10.698%	9.163%
Units Won per Shoe	0.6361	0.5967

Update: 10/14/2011. Shortly after this article was published, I realized that I had made an error that caused me to significantly underestimate the player advantage. This error was caused by using single-deck estimations for the remaining cards in the shoe, rather than determining the exact true count based on the fractional decks remaining. I revised my simulation program and confirmed my updated results with Steve How of discountgambling.net. I apologize for any inconvenience I may have caused the reader.

It is clear from the last row of Table 4 that system 2, with tags (0, 0, 0, -1, -1, -1, -1, 2, 2, 0), performs remarkably well in comparison to its optimal cousin.

The person who uses system 2 should make the Dragon bet whenever the true count is +4 or higher. If he does so, then on average he will have an 8.03% edge over the house each time he makes the bet. This counter will have the opportunity to make the Dragon bet at or above the target true count on 9.16% of his hands. Given that the average shoe yields about 80 hands, the counter should be able to make, on average, about seven Dragon bets per shoe with the edge.

In dollar terms, if the house allows a Dragon bet up to $100 (say), then on a per-shoe basis the counter will average about $59.67 profit. The counter will earn about $8.03 per $100 wagered on the Dragon bet.

It is worthwhile to check that the simulated results for system 2 make sense combinatorially. One way to get a +4 true count off the top is to remove eight 8’s and eight 9’s from the deck. This will leave 400 cards remaining in the eight-deck shoe, with a running count of +32, for a true count of 4.16. In this case, combinatorial analysis gives a player edge of 1.0227%. Using a single deck, one way to get a +4 true count is to remove one 8 and one 9 from the deck. This leaves 50 cards with a +4 running count, giving a true count of 4.16. In this case, combinatorial analysis gives a player edge of 1.3114%. Because the player is making the Dragon bet at a true count of +4 and above, not just at +4, these computations represent a secondary confirmation of the simulated results.

Cut card placement varies by casino, so it is worthwhile to investigate how the edge changes with the placement of the cut card. Table 5 gives statistics for all cut card placements from 14 cards to 52 cards, and then by half-deck increments up to four decks. A cut card placement at one deck, instead of at 14 cards, decreases the potential profit to the player by about 50%.

Table 5

Card Counting Statistics by Cut Card DepthExpand

Cut Card Depth	Trigger Count	Hands per Shoe	Expected Value	Standard Deviation	Bet Frequency	Percent of Shoes Played	Profit per Shoe (units)	Profit per Hour (60 hands)
12	4	81.69	8.30%	6.575	9.31%	67.31%	0.631	0.464
13	4	81.48	8.15%	6.570	9.24%	66.54%	0.613	0.451
14	4	81.28	8.03%	6.567	9.16%	65.81%	0.597	0.440
15	4	81.08	7.87%	6.562	9.09%	65.12%	0.580	0.429
16	4	80.88	7.81%	6.560	9.02%	64.47%	0.569	0.422
17	4	80.67	7.67%	6.556	8.95%	63.81%	0.554	0.412
18	4	80.47	7.64%	6.555	8.87%	63.14%	0.545	0.407
19	4	80.27	7.48%	6.551	8.80%	62.48%	0.528	0.395
20	4	80.07	7.42%	6.549	8.73%	61.80%	0.518	0.388
21	4	79.86	7.37%	6.547	8.66%	61.14%	0.510	0.383
22	4	79.66	7.28%	6.545	8.58%	60.51%	0.498	0.375
23	4	79.46	7.20%	6.542	8.52%	59.93%	0.487	0.368
24	4	79.26	7.04%	6.538	8.45%	59.35%	0.472	0.357
25	4	79.05	7.03%	6.537	8.38%	58.77%	0.466	0.353
26	4	78.85	6.92%	6.534	8.32%	58.20%	0.454	0.345
27	4	78.65	6.88%	6.533	8.25%	57.65%	0.446	0.340
28	4	78.45	6.84%	6.532	8.18%	57.13%	0.439	0.336
29	4	78.24	6.75%	6.529	8.12%	56.64%	0.429	0.329
30	4	78.04	6.69%	6.527	8.05%	56.12%	0.421	0.323
31	4	77.84	6.61%	6.525	7.99%	55.61%	0.411	0.317
32	4	77.64	6.58%	6.524	7.92%	55.06%	0.405	0.313
33	4	77.43	6.49%	6.521	7.86%	54.53%	0.395	0.306
34	4	77.23	6.47%	6.521	7.80%	53.99%	0.389	0.302
35	4	77.03	6.38%	6.518	7.73%	53.49%	0.380	0.296
36	4	76.83	6.33%	6.517	7.67%	53.00%	0.373	0.291
37	4	76.62	6.22%	6.513	7.61%	52.53%	0.363	0.284
38	4	76.42	6.21%	6.513	7.55%	52.06%	0.358	0.281
39	4	76.22	6.18%	6.512	7.49%	51.59%	0.353	0.278
40	4	76.02	6.15%	6.511	7.43%	51.13%	0.347	0.274
41	4	75.81	6.10%	6.510	7.37%	50.70%	0.340	0.269
42	4	75.61	5.97%	6.506	7.31%	50.29%	0.330	0.262
43	4	75.41	6.05%	6.508	7.25%	49.85%	0.330	0.263
44	4	75.21	5.97%	6.506	7.19%	49.40%	0.323	0.257
45	4	75.00	5.92%	6.504	7.13%	48.95%	0.317	0.253
46	4	74.80	5.81%	6.501	7.07%	48.48%	0.307	0.246
47	4	74.60	5.80%	6.501	7.01%	48.03%	0.304	0.244
48	4	74.40	5.72%	6.498	6.95%	47.60%	0.296	0.239
49	4	74.19	5.68%	6.497	6.90%	47.19%	0.291	0.235
50	4	73.99	5.68%	6.497	6.84%	46.77%	0.287	0.233
51	4	73.79	5.63%	6.496	6.78%	46.36%	0.282	0.229
52	4	73.59	5.62%	6.495	6.73%	45.95%	0.278	0.227
1.5 decks	4	68.32	4.79%	6.470	5.37%	36.51%	0.176	0.154
2 decks	4	63.06	4.16%	6.451	4.20%	28.71%	0.110	0.105
2.5 decks	4	57.79	3.64%	6.436	3.19%	22.09%	0.067	0.070
3 decks	4	52.53	3.22%	6.423	2.34%	16.44%	0.039	0.045
3.5 decks	4	47.27	3.13%	6.420	1.62%	11.70%	0.024	0.030
4 decks	4	42.00	2.74%	6.409	1.05%	7.79%	0.012	0.017

This analysis shows that in theory the Dragon Side Bet in EZ Baccarat is an advantage play opportunity using a card counting methodology. In my opinion, however, given the high variance and low return, card counting is not a practical threat to the game.

About the Author

For more information on Eliot, or to contact him, visit http://ijmp.org/ .

Please also see my own card counter vulnerability study of the Panda 8 side bet in EZ Baccarat.
Written by:Michael Shackleford

erinealvomenjaz.netlify.com

Baccarat Dragon 7 Strategy